FMLN USA

Salvadoran Presidential Election: Official Results Next Week, FMLN Promises an Inclusive Government

By: Linda Garrett

El Salvador's 2014 presidential election will be remembered for setting at least three historic precedents: the election of the first former guerrilla combatants as president and vice-president, the closest results in history, and ARENA's unparalleled surge of support between the first and second electoral rounds, which nearly returned their party to power.

Salvador Sánchez Cerén, the former guerrilla commander of the FMLN, won the first round on February 2nd by 10% over Norman Quijano, the ARENA candidate, who finished second, while former president Tony Saca, the UNIDAD candidate, placed a distant third. Because votes for Sánchez Cerén were just shy of the 50.1% required in the three-party race, a second round election had to take place on March 9th.

Eight polls conducted after the first round and released before the February 21st deadline required by law all indicated wide margins of victory for the FMLN. But as the votes came in Sunday evening, it was apparent that something extraordinary had happened in the month between the first and second rounds. With just over 6,300 votes separating the candidates, the FMLN was in the lead, but election officials announced it was too close to call. A final count of the tally sheets from over 10,000 urns began on Monday and was concluded just after midnight on March 13th, confirming the original FMLN lead.

Salvador Sánchez Cerén (left) and Oscar Ortíz (right), celebrate. Source: La Página

Final Count March 13, 2014. Source: TSE

Norman Quijano's call on election night for the Armed Forces (FAES) to intervene was an ominous reminder of the past and, at the same time, a sign of how far the country has come since the 1992 Peace Accords. The High Command, led by Minister of Defense General David Munguía Payés, expressed "concern" about the inflammatory statement. "Under no circumstances" could the FAES be "manipulated" for political purposes, he declared. The institution respects the elected government and is "loyal" to the President and Commander-in-Chief.

Meanwhile, ARENA refused to concede defeat and briefly walked out of the counting process, claiming fraud and bias on the part of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). ARENA party leaders demanded a total vote-by-vote recount and even annulment of the entire process and a new election. Following the announcement of the final count of tally sheets early Thursday morning, ARENA had 48 hours to file formal challenges with the Attorney General, then the Litigation Chamber of the Supreme Court, and if that fails, the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court.

On Thursday morning, two ARENA deputies presented alleged evidence of fraud to the Attorney General, who indicated his support for the official results. The United Nations, OAS,U.S. State Department and U.S. Embassy all expressed confidence in the process and in the professional, transparent work of election officials.

Warnings that El Salvador could be "another Venezuela" motivated ARENA supporters, who staged angry protests for the first three days following the election. Demonstrators banged pots and pans, carried signs ("No to fraud" and "SOS El Salvador") and shouted "¡Patria si, Comunismo No!" In Ilopango, ARENA Mayor Salvador Ruano led a demonstration that blocked a major intersection with burning tires. One FMLN supporter commented, "To the people who voted for ARENA out of fear, look what their party is doing, Venezolanizará the country!"

Norman Quijano speaks at ARENA rally, supporters hold "SOS El Salvador" signs. Source: Dario1

Not all ARENA leaders are in agreement about whether to continue the protest. Some, Roberto D'Aubuisson, Jr. for example, argue for Venezuela-style confrontations ("to the barricades!"), but there are those like Hugo Barrera, a party founder, who understand the necessity of negotiating with the FMLN: "Let's see how we can sit and develop a joint plan," Barrera said.

Mario Acosta Oertel, another historic ARENA leader, said the FMLN victory must be made "legitimate." The country was already divided, he said, "and today the division is even greater." International help will be required, he added, especially from the U.S., "that has a lot to say about this issue."

It is possible that Salvador Sanchez Cerén will not officially be "president-elect" until next week. The FMLN has been quietly victorious all week, avoiding "triumphal" activities but a celebration is planned for Saturday, March 15th. "We're ...filled with hope and joy," Sánchez Cerén said, promising an inclusive government that will be characterized by "dialogue, openness, cordiality and consensus."

The Right Reunited?

The surge in support for ARENA is unprecedented in El Salvador and was unanticipated, given its unique political circumstances. The right has been divided since the 2009 victory of Mauricio Funes and the FMLN; ARENA expelled former President Tony Saca (2004-2009) and consequently lost about a third of its legislators who formed a new "center right" party.

The 2014 ARENA campaign was mismanaged and the candidate's messages were often contradictory. Revelations of massive embezzlement by a former president in the final months of campaigning demoralized ARENA supporters, thousands of whom abstained from voting in the first round. But fear - of Venezuela, of the FMLN, of the past? - trumped disillusionment over the corruption scandal and lackluster campaign.

Within days of the February 2nd defeat, the party mobilized its structures and empowered local officials who had been largely ignored during the campaign season. Economic resources were found to get out the vote. One woman reportedly donated funds for 100 buses to transport voters. "Operation Hormiga" (ant) called on every ARENA member to recruit at least one new voter. The red, white and blue party flags began to appear on thousands of vehicles. The message was: ARENA is back, and only ARENA can save El Salvador from becoming "another Venezuela." Many party members had been dismayed by the corruption scandal, but were reinvigorated for battle at the polls.

FMLN First Round 1,315,768 (48.93%)

FMLN Second Round 1,495,815 (+180,047 votes)/ 50.11%

ARENA First Round 1,047,592 (38.95%)

ARENA Second Round 1,489,451 (+441,859 votes)/ 49.89%

UNIDAD First Round 307,603 (11.44%)

UNIDAD Second Round   n/a

ARENA captured the UNIDAD votes, unaffiliated voters and party members who abstained in the first round. This resurgence does not necessarily reflect allegiance to ARENA, but rather fear or rejection of the FMLN agenda.

The message for both parties, FMLN Minister of Public Works Gerson Martí­nez said, is "We have to reach understandings with each other." The party Secretary General Medardo González declared, "We won't end up embracing ARENA but we can walk together." And, "This is a very emotional moment," Deputy Lorena Peña admitted, "but also [a time] for much reflection."

Salvador Sánchez Cerén and Óscar Ortiz will be inaugurated on June 1st, but the FMLN will not have the broad mandate anticipated to advance its agenda. The right can either boycott and disrupt or cooperate toward consensus on the big fiscal, economic, and security issues facing the country. ARENA's posture during the Funes/FMLN has been to boycott, but it has been a political and economic boycott; the Venezuelan-style protests could portend a more contentious period ahead.

The unofficial president and vice-president-elect are both conciliators - the "tolerant left," as Sánchez Cerén has said. The former guerrilla commander was a signatory to the 1992 UN-brokered peace accords; if invited by both sides, international support may be required again to end the polarization that still plagues El Salvador.

Source: © 2014 Center for Democracy in the Americas. Al rights reserved.